Report: Next-gen nuke power could lead to 'nuclear anarchy'

Stephen C. Webster
Published: Monday March 16, 2009

"An unregulated state of nuclear anarchy."

That's the grim future seen in a recent UK security report; a future unavoidable unless countries start now in preparing safeguards to protect nuclear materials and knowledge reserves from potential enemies.

"Governments and multilateral organisations must come up with a strategy to deal the impact of the new nuclear age, which will produce enough plutonium to make 1m nuclear weapons by 2075, argues Frank Barnaby from the Oxford Research Group thinktank in a paper for the Institute for Public Policy Research," reported Monday's Guardian.

"We are at a crossroads. Unless governments work together to safeguard nuclear energy supplies, the rise in unsecured nuclear technology will put us all in danger," said Barnaby. "Without this, we are hurtling towards a state of nuclear anarchy where terrorists or rogue states have the ways and means of making nuclear weapons or 'dirty bombs', the consequences of which are unimaginable."

Barnaby is a nuclear physicist who's published numerous books on nuclear weapons and non-proliferation.

Because of growing pressure for countries to become "green" and move away from carbon-spewing sources of energy, nuclear power is fast becoming the first choice of many nations, argued Barnaby.

A prior report by Barnaby, "Consequences of a Nuclear Renaissance," is available online (PDF link).

"Currently, about 42 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent are emitted annually. If emissions are capped at this level then atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will reach 550 parts per million by 2050 – up from today’s approximately 370 parts per million," he wrote.

"According to the scientific consensus, to keep climate change within manageable limits, and prevent the risk of runaway changes, it is essential that global average temperatures rise by less than about 2 degrees centigrade. This means keeping the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases to no more than 550 parts per million.

"This threshold may be reached by about 2035 unless urgent action is taken. If nuclear power is to play a significant role in reaching this target it does not have long to do so. Furthermore, if nuclear power is to play more than a marginal role in combating global warming."

He warned of this "nuclear renaissance" would spread across developing nations, resulting in greater stockpiles of fuel that could potentially be converted into weapon forms.

"Dr. Ian Kearns, deputy commissioner of the Institute for Public Policy Research's commission on national security said that an offshoot of combating climate change should not worsen the international security environment," reported UK's In The News.

"A global nuclear renaissance, if badly managed, could bring enormous complications in terms of nuclear non-proliferation and terrorism," he said.

"Barnaby says that a shortage of uranium ... could encourage [countries] to reprocess fuel and produce more plutonium," reported the Guardian. "But he is equally convinced that a nuclear renaissance will lead to fast breeder reactors which produce more nuclear fuel than they use and which could be useful to terrorists."

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Report_Nextgen_nuclear_power_could_lead_0316.html